Bitcoin stumbled to a 12-day low on Monday, challenging the long-standing belief that October reliably delivers bullish momentum. Traders are debating whether the much-talked-about “Uptober” rally—when Bitcoin has historically posted gains in 10 of the past 12 Octobers—can keep its winning streak alive.
Since 2013, October has often been a strong month for BTC, with standout gains of roughly 48% in 2017 and 40% in 2021. Some market watchers say a similar move this year could push prices toward the $165,000 mark. Still, Monday’s pullback has tempered enthusiasm.
Why Optimists Remain Hopeful
Several analysts point to supportive macro signals. Futures markets are pricing in a high likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month, which many believe could inject the kind of liquidity crypto markets thrive on. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes recently suggested that once the U.S. Treasury completes its current cash-balance targets, conditions for a sustained crypto upswing could return.
Reasons for Caution
Others advise keeping expectations in check. Low implied volatility, modest inflows of new capital, and profit-taking behavior may limit upside moves, according to trading-desk strategists. Jeff Mei, COO of BTSE, added that ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty could make this year’s October less bullish than in past cycles—unless the Fed adopts a more aggressive economic-stimulus stance.
Current Market Snapshot
As of Monday morning, total crypto market capitalization slid by roughly $80 billion, with Bitcoin dipping near $114,000 and Ether falling below $4,300.
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