Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas believes that, while unlikely, the SEC could issue the “rug pull of a decade.”

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas

While the chances of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) being rejected this month are slim, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas believes it will be due to the Securities and Exchange Commission requesting “more time” rather than a flat-out rejection.

Balchunas says that while he and fellow ETF analyst James Seyffart maintain a 90% chance of approval by Jan. 10, they haven’t raised the odds beyond that number, owing to this concern.

“If we don’t see it in the next two weeks, I believe it’s because they need more time.”

“Because of the possibility […], we haven’t gone any further than 90%.” “I don’t think we’ll see a full-fledged denial,” Balchunas said, noting that the 10% chance includes both scenarios.

However, Balchunas believes that given the amount of time and effort put in by the SEC and Bitcoin ETF issuers, a Bitcoin ETF would be unlikely to be rejected outright at the last minute.

“This would be the rug pull of the decade.”

“Everyone put in a lot of effort, especially over the holidays.” Sadistic may not even be a strong enough word.”

In a Jan. 2 market report, Vetle Lunde, an analyst at crypto research firm K33 Research, offered a similar outlook to Balchunas but put the chances of an ETF rejection at only 5%.

Meanwhile, if the SEC issues an outright denial, Balchunas believes fund issuers will follow in the footsteps of crypto asset manager Grayscale and file separate lawsuits against the regulator.

“People have worked far too hard and invested far too much money to give up now.” Thus, it wouldn’t be over.  I don’t believe there will be a cooling-off period this time. “I believe there would be hell,” said Balchunas.

Public comments have continued to be submitted in response to the SEC’s request for feedback on the filings, with two as recently as Jan. 2 requesting that the ETFs be rejected outright.

The most recent letter to the SEC requests Source: SEC

According to the latest letter, authoritarian regimes seeking to elude sanctions and exercise more control over their populace may find Bitcoin appealing due to its decentralized structure and capacity to bypass conventional financial avenues.